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Bank of Portugal forecasts put tourism at pre-pandemic level as early as 2022

Data and statistics


Bank of Portugal published its June 2022 Economic Bulletin and updated export growth forecasts until 2024.​​

In 2022, exports will grow 13.4%​, gradually decelerating to a pace close to pre-pandemic, in 2024. This trend ​is determined by the recovery of service exports, with tourism projected to return to a pre-pandemic level in the middle of the year 2022.

In the specific case of tourism, Bank of Portugal predicts that tourism revenues will exceed 2019 revenues as early as 2022 (84.8% in the December 2021 Bulletin). This represents a significant acceleration of tourism revenues, which should reach​, in 2022​, a value close to what was predicted for 2024 in the last forecast (106.1).

Projections for 2022 to 2024 reflect the continued recovery of the Portuguese economy after the pandemic shock, in spite of an external environment aggravated by the war in​ Ukraine. In 2022, the economy will grow​ 6.3%, reflecting a strong knock-on effect associated with growth throughout 2021, the dynamics of the first quarter of the year, but also a sharp deceleration in the rest of the year. In 2023 and 2024, activity growth will be of​ 2.6% and 2%, respectively.​​

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